Рабочий семинар МИЭФ Романа Захаренко (МИЭФ НИУ ВШЭ): «Trade Costs, Conflicts, and Defense Spending»

9 апреля в 16.40 в ауд. 3211 прошел рабочий семинар МИЭФ.
Докладчик: Роман Захаренко (МИЭФ НИУ ВШЭ)

9 апреля в 16.40 в ауд. 3211 (ул. Шаболовка д. 26, корпус 3) прошел рабочий семинар Международного института экономики и финансов.
Докладчик: Роман Захаренко (МИЭФ НИУ ВШЭ)
Тема доклада:«Trade Costs, Conflicts, and Defense Spending» в соавторстве с Александром Тарасовым и Майклом Сейцом

Тезисы доклада:We propose a model in which countries jointly make decisions of bilateral trade, military conflicts with each other, and unilateral defense spending. A military conflict increases the cost of trade; a greater initial trade volume leads to greater welfare losses in case of conflict, and thus makes conflict less likely. Defense spending improves welfare in case of conflict; therefore countries with greater conflict probability spend more on defense and, conversely, greater defense spending increases conflict probability. An exogenous reduction of trade costs for a pair of countries causes both to cut defense spending, which causes a domino effect on defense spending by other countries. We estimate the model parameters using data on trade, conflict incidence, and defense spending. We find that conventional trade models, which do not incorporate military conflicts and defense spending, underestimate the gains from trade between the most hostile nations by at least a factor of three.

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