В понедельник, 28 июня состоялся научный семинар МИЭФ. Во время семинара было представлено два доклада:
“Quality of business forecasts of Russian managers: results of a longitudinal study” Дмитрия Сторчеуса и Алексея Белянина (МИЭФ)
“Do
Locals Perform Better Than Foreigners: Evidence from Mutual Funds
Investing in Russia” Галины Смирновой (Сбербанк) и Карстена Шпренгера
(МИЭФ)
В понедельник, 28 июня состоялся научный семинар МИЭФ. Во время семинара было представлено два доклада:
“Quality of business forecasts of Russian managers: results of a longitudinal study” Дмитрия Сторчеуса и Алексея Белянина (МИЭФ)
Abstract: Common-sense economic wisdom suggests that good
forecasting ability is one of the major virtues of a good manager, and
an important component of business success. Nevertheless, extensive
studies suggest that individual perceptions of uncertain events are
subject to various 'heuristics and biases' whose origins are deeply
rooted in the nature of human judgment. One of these is exaggeration of
the quality of one's forecasting abilities, leading to overconfidence
in one's beliefs and poor calibration of forecasts. Using a
longitudinal survey of the Russian managers, we explore the effects of
excessive confidence and poor calibration on firm performance and
behaviour. One of the key findings is that firms whose managers are
overconfident on average perform systematically better than those firm
whose managers are not overconfident. We propose a theoretical
explanation of optimal managerial overconfidence in terms of the theory
of firm behaviour and discuss its implications using real data.
“Do Locals Perform Better Than Foreigners: Evidence from Mutual Funds Investing in Russia” Галины Смирновой (Сбербанк) и Карстена Шпренгера (МИЭФ)
Abstract: The mutual fund industry has grown considerably over
the last decade in Russia. A large literature in financial economics
tests the hypothesis of financial market efficiency against the
alternative hypothesis that mutual fund managers can systematically
perform better than the market. There are only very few such studies
for Russia. One particular question that we investigate is whether
local or foreign fund managers of mutual fund investing in Russia are
performing better. Both their capability of selection and their market
timing are compared using a large database of equity, fixed-income and
mixed funds investing in the Russian market.