Научный семинар МИЭФ и ЛФЭ, Christian Julliard (LSE)
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Во вторник, 3 ноября пройдёт совместный научный семинар МИЭФ и ЛФЭ.
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Тема доклада: "The Spread of COVID-19 in London: Network Effects and Optimal Lockdowns" совместно с Ran Shi и Kathy Yuan
Тезисы доклада: We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics generated by network interactions. Using the London metropolitan area as a salient case study, we show that commuter network externalities account for about 42% of the propagation of COVID-19. We find that the UK lockdown measure reduced total propagation by 57%, with more than one third of the effect coming from the reduction in network externalities. Counterfactual analyses suggest that: i) the lockdown was somehow late, but further delay would have had more extreme consequences; ii) a targeted lockdown of a small number of highly connected geographic regions would have been equally effective, arguably with significantly lower economic costs; iii) targeted lockdowns based on threshold number of cases are not effective, since they fail to account for network externalities.
РЕГИСТРАЦИЯ: тут
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Дата
3 ноября, 2020 г. 13:00
Адрес
ZOOM
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