Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth: a 2025 Student Research Paper Competition - Winning Study by ICEF Student Anastasia Rozenson
— Anastasia, what is your paper about?
In my paper, entitled Artificial Intelligence and Factor Substitutability, I explore the theoretical perspective of the economic growth in the context of the emerging technologies that can have a qualitatively new effect on the economy as compared to earlier know-hows.
My interest in this topic first appeared in my second year of study when I and my classmates were doing a project as part of our Macroeconomics course. Our task was to analyze a research paper and present its proposed subject using one of the models we had learned. We chose the Solow model, and it wasn’t until then that I saw how much room it offered for new contexts and creative modification.
Our project scored the highest and had led me to learn more about the forms the technological progress is likely to take as artificial intelligence progresses. I wanted to explore how this current wave of technology is different from the previous ones and how it can affect the economy.
— What turned out to be the most challenging yet exciting part of your study?
Intuiting the overarching effect the new technologies have on the economy—it had to be done in the beginning. One key outcome of my research is that as the range of the computer-aided tasks expands, the substitutability between labour and capital increases. At the same time, this substitutability is less pronounced for expert-level tasks.
Then came the technical part where I had to develop a model. It took me quite a long time to formalize it in a way that avoided overburdening with exogenous assumptions or limitations. My most challenging part was to maintain the balance between realism and rigorous, transparent mathematics, while my most exciting thing was witnessing an intuitive idea evolve into a complete theoretical construct with all its meaningful hypotheses expressed as model parameters.
— Did any of your hypotheses have to be modified as you went on with your research?
Yes, and it was a very important experience. At a certain stage I decided my original model needed to be simplified for its supporting arguments to sound more direct. But, as I approached the final stage of my research, it became clear that the modified version reflected neither the behavioral pattern nor my original intuition.
As a result, I spent the last month of my study redesigning its framework according to my original model. I was able to retain most of the solutions logic and complete the work on time, while also bringing it to a higher level.
That experience had taught me to first check whether the model can retain its target properties before bringing it to the next level of detail degree.
— How was your interaction with your supervisor?
I met with my supervisor, Prof. Andrey Dementiev, regularly. By discussing the logic of my proposed model and checking its outcomes for mathematical correctness, we gradually arrived at the solutions that sounded most optimal. It was a stepwise process where each step was designed to improve both the model and the way to present it.
— How has the academic environment of ICEF contributed to your research?
It has contributed by giving me the freedom to choose topic and supervisor—that’s the most important thing. When you are free to make choices, you get motivated to do better research and achieve more ambitious goals.
— The end of last December saw you contribute to The 20th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development in New Delhi. What study did you present and what was your first experience as a major international conference speaker like?
In India I presented a study that competed in the Student Research Paper Competition. The discussion segment was the most fruitful part of my experience there—it helped me see where in my study I lacked clearer explanation and which parts appeared susceptible to interpretation gaps.
I had amassed a significant portfolio of ideas and results over that year. The most difficult thing was to skip those that could be left out without losing the core meaning. My experience as a research presenter has taught me to place accents clearly and highlight what mattered most within the allotted time.
On the sidelines of the conference sessions, I was able to communicate with the participants and learn more about the Indian culture. This made my trip especially memorable.
I would also like to thank the management of ICEF for their support in my joining that international conference. It was an important step both in my professional and personal development.
— How do you see yourself progressing academically and professionally?
I currently work at Renaissance Capital as a junior economist. My road map is to stay in this field and do a master’s abroad as a way to gain international experience and expand my professional networks.
As for my research endeavours, I’m going to pursue them as part of my graduation thesis. My further work will involve an intense focus on time series and the use of econometrics—I am planning to supplement the theoretical part with empirical results.
By doing research, I have gained not only in-depth knowledge of theoretical economics but also enhanced technical skills needed in mathematical analysis, programming, and econometrics. I have improved my research networking skills.
